Comments on: Intel’s Datacenter Business Goes From Bad To Worse, With Worst Still To Come https://www.nextplatform.com/2023/01/27/intels-datacenter-business-goes-from-bad-to-worse-with-worst-still-to-come/ In-depth coverage of high-end computing at large enterprises, supercomputing centers, hyperscale data centers, and public clouds. Tue, 14 Feb 2023 15:11:46 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.7.1 By: JayN https://www.nextplatform.com/2023/01/27/intels-datacenter-business-goes-from-bad-to-worse-with-worst-still-to-come/#comment-204438 Mon, 06 Feb 2023 00:22:09 +0000 https://www.nextplatform.com/?p=141834#comment-204438 To put SPR launch in perspective, PG said in Intel’s q3 earnings call: “We expect this will be our fastest ever, Xeon to 1 million units, and we’re going to push that quite aggressively, and the factories are ramping up as we speak.”

]]> By: William Keating https://www.nextplatform.com/2023/01/27/intels-datacenter-business-goes-from-bad-to-worse-with-worst-still-to-come/#comment-204287 Wed, 01 Feb 2023 01:38:37 +0000 https://www.nextplatform.com/?p=141834#comment-204287 In reply to Timothy Prickett Morgan.

keep up the good work 🙂

]]> By: Timothy Prickett Morgan https://www.nextplatform.com/2023/01/27/intels-datacenter-business-goes-from-bad-to-worse-with-worst-still-to-come/#comment-204283 Tue, 31 Jan 2023 22:00:25 +0000 https://www.nextplatform.com/?p=141834#comment-204283 In reply to William Keating.

Just my peculiar form of dyslexia, which crops up from time to time.

]]> By: Michael Alan Bruzzone https://www.nextplatform.com/2023/01/27/intels-datacenter-business-goes-from-bad-to-worse-with-worst-still-to-come/#comment-204280 Tue, 31 Jan 2023 18:52:52 +0000 https://www.nextplatform.com/?p=141834#comment-204280 Camp Marketing so said server + networking / edge and Altera components estimate including AMD for 2022 all up.

Estimate ONE Intel on 10Q financial adjusted on channel inventory data for what escapes in sales bundle non reported and see math next in Estimate 2.

q1 = 8,586,001 component units
q2 = 5,743,041
q3 = 7,223,821
q4 = 8,079,880
TOTAL = 29,641,743

AMD Epyc + TR5K looks like it’s coming in around 8 M units in 2022 which places AMD production share at 21.2% in relation Intel Estimate ONE.

Estimate TWO Intel on 10Q financial Channel inventory at $1K AWP = $2377 < variable COS < MG&A, < tax accrual. In this estimate cost of R&D is treated as depreciated fixed and NOT taken from component NET at $768.73 / into division revenue.

q1 = 7,728,488
q2 = 6,723,719
q3 = 5,325,471
q4 = 5,298,083
TOTAL = 25,075,760

AMD Epyc Milan + TR5K looks like it's coming in around 8 M units in 2022 which places AMD production share at 19.4% in relation Intel Estimate TWO.

Estimate 3, NOW taking < R&D treating as operating cost NOW NET $488.18 approximately x2 marginal cost / DCG stated revenue;

q1 = 12,169,963 component units
q2 = 10,587,765
q3 = 8,385,959
q4 = 8,342,831
TOTAL = 39,486,519 and analyst's preference on what does not get reported as revenue in sales bundle.

AMD Epyc Milan + TR5K looks like it's coming in around 8 M units in 2022 which places AMD production share at 16.8% in relation Intel Estimate THREE.

Networking and Edge at quarterly Intel full line CCG/DGC/Network/Altera average gross $217.16 per unit;

q1 = 9,972,850
q2 = 11,871,714
q3 = 10,087,596
q4 = 8,926,334
TOTAL = 40,858,494

Range Low on XEON $1K AWP < all costs NET $488.18 = 18,286,408 units analyst disqualifies as low.

Altera components average with associated development platform sales at objective Xeon net $768.73 = 1,087,629 units

AMD Epyc 2022 on 10Q adjusted on channel inventory data;

q1 = 1,778,617 units
q2 = 1,115,733
q3 = 1,907,968
q4 = tbd

Thread ripper 5K

q1 = 546,220
q2 = 417,534
q3 = 175,832
q4 = tbd

AMD in relation Intel channel inventory data ONLY (what commercial analysts neglect to report) that is sustaining market share.

Beginning with Xeon Ice and Epyc Milan channel market share on December 31 where Genoa was just available in sample volume;

AMD Milan = 37%
Intel Ice Lake = 63%

Adding AMD Rome:

AMD Milan + Rome = 70% but Rome sales have slowed
Intel Ice = 30%

Adding Intel Cascade Lakes:

Milan + Rome = 10%
Ice + Cascade Lakes = 90%

Adding AMD Naples, all Thread ripper generations and Intel Skylake

All Epyc + TR 1/2/3/5 = 5.8%
All Intel Xeon P/G/S/W = 94.2%

Mike Bruzzone, Camp Marketing

]]> By: William Keating https://www.nextplatform.com/2023/01/27/intels-datacenter-business-goes-from-bad-to-worse-with-worst-still-to-come/#comment-204248 Tue, 31 Jan 2023 03:41:49 +0000 https://www.nextplatform.com/?p=141834#comment-204248 hi, direct quote from the earnings call transcript “For all of calendar year ’22, our sell-in was roughly 10% below consumption with Q4 under shipping meaningfully higher than full year, and Q1 expected to grow again to represent the most significant inventory digestion in our data set.”

You seem to be saying the opposite, i.e. “above” instead of “below”. Just FYI. Good article. Thanks..

]]> By: Anh https://www.nextplatform.com/2023/01/27/intels-datacenter-business-goes-from-bad-to-worse-with-worst-still-to-come/#comment-204221 Mon, 30 Jan 2023 15:11:15 +0000 https://www.nextplatform.com/?p=141834#comment-204221 In reply to Eric Olson.

intel has better debugging tool

]]> By: Timothy Prickett Morgan https://www.nextplatform.com/2023/01/27/intels-datacenter-business-goes-from-bad-to-worse-with-worst-still-to-come/#comment-204098 Sun, 29 Jan 2023 03:31:34 +0000 https://www.nextplatform.com/?p=141834#comment-204098 In reply to Jasmine Wang.

All fixed now. I have no idea what Excel was doing there….

]]> By: Timothy Prickett Morgan https://www.nextplatform.com/2023/01/27/intels-datacenter-business-goes-from-bad-to-worse-with-worst-still-to-come/#comment-204096 Sun, 29 Jan 2023 03:19:23 +0000 https://www.nextplatform.com/?p=141834#comment-204096 In reply to Jasmine Wang.

You’re right. Something went wonky in the transition. . . Let me see.

]]> By: Jasmine Wang https://www.nextplatform.com/2023/01/27/intels-datacenter-business-goes-from-bad-to-worse-with-worst-still-to-come/#comment-203982 Sat, 28 Jan 2023 02:11:17 +0000 https://www.nextplatform.com/?p=141834#comment-203982 something wrong the DCG/DCAI quarterly revenue vs operating profit chart: x-axis 2021 seems to have 8 quarters

]]> By: Eric Olson https://www.nextplatform.com/2023/01/27/intels-datacenter-business-goes-from-bad-to-worse-with-worst-still-to-come/#comment-203981 Sat, 28 Jan 2023 01:44:08 +0000 https://www.nextplatform.com/?p=141834#comment-203981 My experience with EPYC and Xeon is the code just runs and it makes no difference which is which. With such software compatibility, how could it matter whether one bought Intel a few years ago or AMD?

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