Comments on: Deep Dive Into AMD’s “Milan” Epyc 7003 Architecture https://www.nextplatform.com/2021/03/26/deep-dive-into-amds-milan-epyc-7003-architecture/ In-depth coverage of high-end computing at large enterprises, supercomputing centers, hyperscale data centers, and public clouds. Tue, 27 Apr 2021 13:28:12 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.7.1 By: Michael A Bruzzone https://www.nextplatform.com/2021/03/26/deep-dive-into-amds-milan-epyc-7003-architecture/#comment-161291 Fri, 26 Mar 2021 19:03:05 +0000 http://www.nextplatform.com/?p=138145#comment-161291 Statement; Calculate next 5 year compute market central processor component demand;

“The stakes are high for both companies, who are vying for what seems to be a reasonably elastic demand for compute capacity in aggregate around the world … ”

Intel Xeon ‘single’ Cores Production;

v2 = 4,252,137,318
v3 = 6,014,816,966
v4 = 4,336,668,585
XSL/XCL = 3,876,000,000

Xeon v2, v3, v4 volumes begin at their introduction date and on channel supply assessment produced in unison supporting end customer by generation platform standard through October 2019.

The question to consider; what is the base application CPU requirement in annual unit volume?

Xeon v2/v3/v4 total cores represent a relatively equal distribution.

Analyst base is v3 + v4 @ 10,351,485,551 total cores classifying v2 displaced on v3/v4 upgrade. In reality secondary market for v2 has been brisk in relation v3/v4 resale.

XSL/XCL core volume is deleted from this estimate as into first year of an upgrade cycle and here begins analyst’s 5 year growth projection.

Normalized by core count, at 16 core current commercial sweet spot, total available market without compute (data) elastic growth is 10.351 billion cores / 16 = 646,967,847 total components.

Note, thought lagging, enterprise application utilization in the 8 to 12 core range can be discounted from this estimate?

At 20C = 517,574,278 components is anticipated the near term enterprise sweet spot
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At 24C = 431,311,898

At 32C = 323,483,923 virtual machine sweet spot

At 64C = 161,741,962 represents a realistic Intel Xeon annual volume in relation slack additive.

Average Xeon 2012 to date is 200 million annual decreasing by 1/2 through three years of XSL/XCL = 300 M units.

Ivy full run in units = 495,587,100
Haswell = 648,148,380
Broadwell = 368,138,250
XSL/XCL = 300,000,000

See the upgrade cycle? The question is elastic application demand and I’m not talking component variable core operation. Or am I?

At x2 data CPU relation the next 5 years commercial data center market for compute is the equivalent of 20,702,971,103 cores or 323,483,923 individual 32 core components.

Agree, disagree, define.

At 32C normalized / 5 = 129,393,569 components on production economic assessment is thought current Intel Xeon annual production across all core grades.

Scalable XSL/XCL full run by core grade;

4C = 8.08%
6C = 4.65%
8C = 23.40%
10C = 9.77%
12C = 15.17%
14C = 4.81%
16C = 9.86%
18C = 6.69%
20C = 5.03%
22C = 1.48%
24C = 4.14%
26C = 1.96%
28C = 4.97%

Rome full run by core grade;

8C = 14.51%
12C = 3.39%
16C = 15.67%
24C = 11.88%
32C = 31.92%
48C = 2.93%
64C = 19.71%

Query; at xx% component growth per year, analyst relied on 19%, reaching 259,477,998 central processing units in 2025, what is the annual by core grade requirement 2001 through 2025? On analyst standard distribution median is set at Rome 32 core.

Mike Bruzzone, Camp Marketing

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